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Da AffarInternazionali:  https://www.affarinternazionali.it/2020/08/leuropa-puo-salvarsi-salvando-lafrica-parla-diego-masi/

Qual è oggi il rapporto fra l’Europa e l’Africa? Come possono i destini di questi due continenti incrociarsi in maniera proficua per entrambe le parti? E c’è davvero bisogno che si incontrino? Ne abbiamo parlato con Diego Masi – già parlamentare, sottosegretario all’Interno e presidente di Action Aid Italia -, autore del libro “Eurafrica – L’Europa può salvarsi salvando l’Africa?“, uscito a luglio per Fausto Lupetti Editore.

Nel suo libro afferma che nei prossimi 50 anni la crescita della popolazione sarà africana: 2,1 miliardi su 2,7 cioè l’80%. Eppure, scrive anche che in Africa la crescita della popolazione potrebbe risultare inversamente proporzionale a un grado soddisfacente di ricchezza. Ci spiega perché?
“L’impressionante crescita dell’Africa che passa dai 200 milioni di abitanti nel 1950 ai 4,3 miliardi nel 2100 è una realtà ormai quasi impossibile da frenare. L’età media africana è intorno ai 20 anni; la pianificazione familiare nulla e il rapporto di natalità di 5 figli a coppia indicano che nei prossimi 80 anni andrà così. Neppure le epidemie, come qualche sciagurato immagina, potranno fare niente. Ma l’economia non cresce a doppia cifra come in Asia. A tassi, ancorché buoni, del 3-4%, ma non del 15-20%. Il risultato, proiettando il Pil pro capite medio, è che cresce poco o nulla. Purtroppo, l’Africa con la sua incapacità di portare avanti politiche economiche di ampio respiro e la poca trasparenza dei suoi governi condanna i suoi abitanti alla povertà continua”.

Il Pil mondiale – cito i dati che riporta nel suo lavoro – aumenterà solo di 2 volte e mezzo da qui al 2075, mentre nei 50 anni trascorsi è aumentato di 12 volte. Perché? Siamo alla fine della globalizzazione?
“Negli ultimi 30 anni è stata l’Asia a trainare lo sviluppo del mondo. Dal dopoguerra è stato tutto l’Occidente, e poi dal 2000 la Cina ha mantenuto la tendenza a salire. In Cina, in vent’anni il Pil pro-capite è passato da pochi dollari a testa a quasi 10.000. Gli ultimi 30 anni sono stati una corsa al successo. Ma d’ora in poi il mondo tenderà a fermare il suo sviluppo. Non certo per il Covid-19, che darà una mano a questo freno e forse anche un alibi. Ma il mondo frenerà. Perché il progresso economico segue la demografia, ma quando questa è solo africana e l’Africa non cresce, allora il mondo non cresce. La globalizzazione sta cambiando per due ragioni: la guerra fredda tra Stati Uniti e Cinache ormai è in atto (e anche con Joe Biden sarà così) e la conseguente necessità che molte produzioni tornino nei rispettivi geo-poli per ragioni politiche, prima che economiche. La globalizzazione continuerà per moltissimi prodotti e componenti, ma i prodotti a valore aggiunto saranno prodotti in Cina, Europa e Usa. La storia di oggi del 5G ne è la prima grande dimostrazione”.

L’Africa, scrive, è stata sempre ai margini della globalizzazione. Questo cosa ha comportato e cosa comporterà nel prossimo futuro?
“Nel processo di globalizzazione l’Africa non è mai stata coinvolta, è stata dimenticata. Possiamo solo salvare la vendita degli oggetti di plastica dalla Cina che hanno invaso il continente tanto che il catino di plastica sulle teste delle africane nelle baraccopoli è ormai un simbolo. Né la Cina né gli occidentali hanno mai fatto di questo continente un luogo di delocalizzazione produttiva o di sviluppo autonomo. Hanno comprato – Cina in testa – le materie prime africane a basso prezzo in cambio spesso di infrastrutture già ora un po’ logore. Ma il futuro è tutto da scrivere: l’Africa è per me ancora una pagina bianca, non nera”.

Perché gli anni trascorsi saranno ricordati come anni felici? Nel libro elenca otto trasformazioni che possono mutare il corso del futuro. Ce le ricorda?
“Dopo la Seconda guerra mondiale abbiamo vissuto il miglior periodo di sviluppo del mondo, con una crescita ineguagliabile. La classe media occidentale ne è stata beneficiata. Nel tempo, mentre crescevamo, abbiamo distrutto il pianeta con l’energia fossile, e abbiamo ridotto in occidente la classe media a un rottame. Oggi i nostri figli pagano questa scarsa lungimiranza. Quello che ci viene incontro è un mondo affascinante, con tante innovazioni e contraddizioni: una tecnologia che cambierà l’economia, una disuguaglianza inaccettabile, una classe media da ricostruire in Occidente, la sfida ambientalista per risanare il pianeta, una vecchiaia che non finisce mai, un’urbanizzazione al 70% della popolazione, il lavoro che cambia nelle modalità e nella sostanza”. 

Quale ruolo potrebbe avere l’Africa nella Via della Seta?
“Con la Nuova Via della Seta credo che l’Africa avrà poco da fare, tranne un magazzino delle merci a Gibuti. Mi sembra che la Cina si stia ormai disinteressando dell’Africa. La Cina ha metà della sua popolazione che guadagna poco o nulla, deve aumentare il suo Pil e la sua ricchezza e lo può fare solo conquistando l’Europa e l’Asia tramite la Via della Seta passando per il corridoio terrestre. Della povertà dell’Africa se ne fa poco; e poi gli africani non stanno pagando neanche i debiti passati. Sono in atto migliaia di contenziosi sotto il nome di “Angola trap“. Ma il vero problema dell’Africa è la sua classe politica. La democrazia è formale e non sostanziale. Sono tutti più o meno dittatori con forte presa sui loro Paesi ma tesi alla repressione. E questo porta corruzione e burocrazia estrema e poco sviluppo. La domanda da farsi è se le nuove generazioni africane sapranno emanciparsi dalla paura e dalla sudditanza e combattere, politicamente parlando”.

DIEGO MASI – EurafricaQuali segnali di cambiamento si avvertono già oggi in Africa?
“Molte cose avvengono. Ma siamo solo agli inizi. L’educazione migliora ovunque. Le infrastrutture poco. L’innovazione tecnologica, se autonoma, funziona, come Mpesa nel Corno d’Africa. Il resto è tutto copycat, cioè copie della disruption occidentale, fatta male”.

In che modo l’Europa, come riporta nel titolo del suo libro, può “salvarsi salvando l’Africa”? Ed ha davvero bisogno di “salvarsi”?
“L’Europa è la preda della necessità mortale di espansione economica della Cina, che vorrebbe conquistarla per fare l’Eurasia. E poi l’Unione europea è in mezzo alla guerra fredda tra Pechino e Washington. È vecchia e anemica (perderà 80 milioni di abitanti da oggi a fine secolo), ma è ricca. Ha sotto di sé l’Africa che è un potenziale mercato di quasi 4 miliardi di persone, e poi la Ue ha bisogno di immigrazione qualificata, ha bisogno di energia, ha bisogno di gioventù, ha bisogno di forza. Tutte cose che l’Africa possiede alla grande. E allora perché non avviare un nuovo geo-polo più grande: Eurafrica. Perché perdere questa opportunità di creare un mercato per miliardi di persone, difendersi dagli attacchi degli altri e forse vincerli. È una carta da giocare. O no?”.

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